Monday, August 28, 2006

Ernesto weakens over land

Well with Ernesto's new track bringing him over a lot of land, he got a little lazy yesterday. I checked in on him a few times, and his pressure got up as high as 1008 millibars. He has dropped again to 1004 millibars but his make-up will be spotty over the next day or so, as he travels over Cuba.

Basically the short and sweet of it it, Ernesto is going to need to get over Cuba fast, if he wants to regain his Hurricane status. There is a slight chance this could happen as he approached cuba, but even if he does, he will die as he crosses cuba and her rugged terrain.

Once on the other side, things get interesting. There is currently a high pressure system over mississippi which will prevent Ernesto from tracking westward. This system will be weakening in the coming days, so how fast it weakens, and where the system is actually sitting when Ernesto emerges on the other side of Cuba will dictate where he makes landfall, but right now it looks like it will hit Florida as at least a Tropical Storm.

So it looks like Ernesto will not get a chance to show us what he is made of unless a few things come into play. Ernesto could gains strength if he gets a chance to stall north of Cuba and sit over warm water for a bit. Also if the High Pressure system over missippi weakens and allows Ernesto to track a bit West into the Gulf. These are things that look pretty improbably now, but you cant knock a guy for dreaming eh. lol

Once again here are your images.....pay close attention to the wave also building at 30 degrees west, 10 degrees north....this could turn into another storm....and if I was a betting man, i would put some money on it.



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